Op-ed
Take the 6:40 to Abilene
by Gary Reid
February 2000
In my former life as a corporate executive I studied a goodly number of management theories. One of the more interesting ones is known as the 'Abilene Paradox'. It is a lesson in managing agreement.
The parable goes something like this:
A Texas family, a married couple and the wife's mother and father, is sitting around on the front porch of the house desperately trying to get some relief from the oppressive 100-degree heat. The father-in-law suggests that they all go to Abilene, some 50 miles distant, and eat some ice cream. Everybody seems to be in agreement and they all pile into a beat-up old Buick (non air-conditioned), roll the windows down, and drive through a dust storm and parched fields to the bustling metropolis of Abilene. After obtaining their objective they drive the same awful road back. When they get home they are crankier than when they left. After discussion it turns out that nobody really wanted to go to Abilene. The father-in-law suggested it only because he thought it might be a diversion the others would enjoy. The others agreed to go because they did not want to be the party spoilers.
The lesson in the Abilene Paradox is that it is important that all parties to a proposal express their views openly at the beginning because, through inertia, they may end up being railroaded into something they neither need nor want. Most people equate silence with consent. If you don't want something you must say no and be heard to say no.
This segues into the problem presented by the mind-set of the current Federal Minister of Transport, David Collenette. Some time ago he set out to give Toronto a railroad it did not ask for, does not want, does not need and certainly cannot afford. It is a line to run between Union Station and Pearson Airport. Recently, the Toronto Star's transportation writer, David Carr, hit the nail on the head by pointing out that unless some local forces get together and tell the Minister to get off at the nearest siding then we are all going to Abilene for ice cream and we will be very crabby afterwards, not to mention poorer.
Even with their huge volumes of passengers GO Transit and the Toronto Transit Commission continue to rely on annual public subsidies just to operate safely and efficiently, never mind expanding services. The mayor must travel to Ottawa to ask the Finance Minister, who does not represent Toronto, for $100 million for the TTC. Collenette's proposal will require between $350 million and $1 billion dollars to build. It will never generate sufficient passenger revenue to pay its way. A billion dollars of federal money to expand GO Transit and fix up the TTC would improve the lot of many people and communities in the GTA. Another rail line competing for passenger traffic in an unprofitable market (read competing for public subsidy) will only worsen our transit problems.
It is amazing what these politicians can do with your money--they are like wizards. They chant incantations about private-public partnerships. "Ah, the private sector will build it and operate it." Beware the sparkling private sector wand being waved about by a bald-faced politician. For the private sector, making a profit is not everything, it is the only thing. That profit could come from passenger fees, as in the case of airports, or it could come from government subsidies, like all passenger rail service. It is all the same to the private sector. But it is not the same to the taxpayers.
The Transport Minister generated some publicity when he claimed that the rail line would doom the Toronto City Centre Airport. This came a week after the Minister received a report from the Toronto Port Authority observing that 87% of the TCCA passengers stated they would still use the Toronto island airport even if there were a rail service between Union and Pearson. Another week later the peripatetic Collenette lectured Air Canada on the evils of trying to destroy competition. It takes one to know one.
The capital investment in the airport to turn it into a profitable commuter facility is about $40 million; an amount less than 12% of the minimal required capital investment to implement Collenette Rail. His rail service would likely require about 10 million passengers a year to break even. This is an unattainable figure. In contrast, the Toronto City Centre Airport only needs about 500,000 passengers a year to turn a profit, a number that can easily be achieved. Additionally, the airport investment can be made over time as the passenger revenues build. The rail line requires significant costs before any passenger can climb on board. The city of Toronto entered into an airport operating agreement with the federal government for sole purpose of holding the city harmless from any losses. Not a municipal thought was turned to sharing in profits. Why does the city not understand that the island airport is an important piece of transportation infrastructure and that, unlike passenger rail, it can be operated at a profit with very modest capital improvements? The city continues to shun the airport as if it were a plague. Meanwhile, the Government of Canada has reneged on its part of the bargain and will leave the airport operator, the Toronto Port Authority, millions of dollars short of the money needed to properly manage the enterprise over the life of the contract. The city has uttered not a peep about this. The Port Authority has sued the city to get more money. It cannot continue to absorb the losses from the airport. The city, in turn, has claimed against the federal government because of TPA's lawsuit. And round and round it goes, and where it will stop, everybody knows “ your pockets. There are significant financial benefits to Toronto accruing from a commuter airport, not the least of which would be a solvent Port Authority. In its current cash-strapped, debt-ridden state, you would think that Toronto city council would leap at the financial opportunity sitting on its own doorstep.
It seems the councillors prefer to go out and buy David Collenette a double scoop of Rocky Railroad and fight it all out in court.
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