By arthur Weinreb
Monday, December 18, 2006
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois have announced that they may bring a non-confidence motion against the Conservative government on the issue of Canada's participation in the war in afghanistan. It's unlikely that this is a bluff. The Bloc has the most to gain by going to the polls quickly. Of all the candidates who ran for the leadership of the Liberal Party, Stphane Dion is the one that least warms the hearts of the new Quebec nation. The longer the election call is delayed, the more chance Dion's popularity in Quebec can change the only way it can change – up.
as far as the NDP is concerned, the quicker an election is called the better. a recent Ipsos Reid poll found the Conservatives and the Liberals in a virtual tie while support for the socialists was pegged at 13 per cent. The NDP who have always painted themselves as the guardians of the environment (and therefore the planet) have been eclipsed by the new Liberal leader and his trusty dog, Kyoto. and with Elizabeth May's strong second place showing in the recent London Ontario by-election, the Green Party can be counted on taking votes away from Smilin' Jack and his N Dippers. It would be best if the NDP could go to the polls before the party descends into Elvis territory (that 9 to 11 per cent range that approximates the percentage of the population that think that the King is still alive).
Whether or not a non confidence motion would be successful would depend upon how the Liberals would vote. They face a disadvantage in that they were in government not only when the deployment in afghanistan was made but when the nature of the mission was changed to a combat role in the Kandahar region. But what will really determine the Liberals' position will be whether or not they feel that their new leader is ready and able to defeat the government and regain the throne that they believe is rightfully theirs.
Should a snap election be called in the New Year and prior to a budget being handed down, the Conservatives will be most vulnerable on two issues; the environment and afghanistan. Fighting the Tories on the environment will be more difficult because it's hard to know exactly where they stand; for Kyoto, against Kyoto, for the trading of carbon emission credits, against such trading… If an election is forced over the issue of troop deployment in afghanistan, it will undoubtedly become the major campaign issue.
In order to retain power and possibly come back with a majority, Stephen Harper is going to have to sell the war to Canadians and the question that must be asked is, is he up to it? The short answer is, "probably not”.
There are two parts to what our troops are doing in afghanistan. They are helping with the rebuilding and reconstruction of that country and they are also engaged in combat with the Taliban. although the first part may not be properly explained to Canadians as Defense Minister Gordon O'Connor has admitted, the fighting part is almost completely ignored unless and until a soldier dies. Military spokesmen like Brig.-Gen. David Fraser brag about how many roads Canadian troops are building in afghanistan; it's no wonder there is so much opposition to Canada's commitment to the war. If 2,500 men and women were hired to build a road in Canada and 44 of them died, there would be screams to halt the project and calls for that good old Canadian staple; the public inquiry. Heads would roll at the number of deaths.
What we get from the media and the military establishment is that Canadian troops are battling the Taliban, well, because much like the highest mountain they are there. If Harper is going to sell this campaign to Canadians he's going to have to show how a soldier from Edmonton or rural New Brunswick who is risking his or her life by engaging the Taliban is somehow making Canada a safer place to live. Canadians have to be told that soldiers who are risking their lives while engaged in reconstruction in afghanistan are doing so, not to better that country but to stabilize it in order to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks on Canadian soil.
The problem is that it is too politically correct to tie what the troops are doing in afghanistan with the threat of Islamic fascism which is the real reason why we have troops there in the first place. We like to hide our heads in the sand and pretend that this rationale for going to war no longer exists if in fact it ever did.
Even for what passes for conservatism in Canada is just too squeamish and sensitive to portray the war the way it needs to be portrayed; a war to reduce the threat to Canada by terrorists. If the Liberals can maneuver themselves around the fact that they sent the troops in the first place, the non-confidence motion will pass.
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