Webster Brooks,
Foreignpolicyreview.org
The specter of a Hezbollah-led coalition victory in Lebanon’s June 7 parliamentary elections looms large over the Middle East . Under Hassan Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah’s March 8 Coalition is on the threshold of ruling the Arab world’s most ethnically and religiously diverse democracy. With all the legitimate instruments of state power at Nasrallah’s disposal, Lebanon’s transformation from a weak Balkanized state into a fortress of Iranian influence in the Levant is a foreboding certainty. Bracing for a strategic setback in the region, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced stop in Beirut on April 27 to assess the situation and reassure America’s Lebanese allies they would not be abandoned in tough times. Laying flowers on the grave of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Clinton pledged support for the “voices of moderation”—the pro-American “March 14” Cedar Coalition led by Saad Hariri, (Rafik Hariri’s son) and promised that the Obama administration’s dialogue with Syria would not compromise Lebanon’s sovereignty.
With three weeks left until Election Day, the Shiia Hezbollah and AMAL parties’ alliance with Michael Aoun’s Christian Maronite forces have seized the political momentum. Flush with money and a wielding a formidable organization on the ground, the March 8 Coalition is superbly positioned to defeat Hariri’s “Cedar” alliance. The majority of Sunni Muslims, Druze forces and micro-Christian parties supporting the Cedar coalition hold a 70-58 advantage over the Hezbollah bloc in the 128 member National Assembly. With the Sunni and Shiia vote evenly divided between the Cedar March 14 bloc and the Hezbollah March 8th coalition, the election’s outcome will likely be determined by the Christian Maronite swing vote with 34 seats in parliament. Michael Aoun, the once powerful anti-Syrian Christian Maronite Prime Minister and Lebanese Army Commander has emerged as the pivotal figure in the election. After returning from a 15 year exile, Aoun switched sides in 2006 to support Hezbollah. Visiting Damascus in 2008, the general who led Lebanese forces into battle against Syrian troops was greeted as a kingmaker. Aoun's Free Democratic Movement captured 70% of the Christian vote in the 2005 elections. Hezbollah is confident that the influential Aoun can deliver a substantial margin of the Christian electorate to give them a working majority in the parliament. In exchange for delivering votes to the Hezbollah-AMAL bloc, Aoun is reeping the rewards of Syrian and Iranian largesse in the form of security guarantees for Christian Maronite communities, campaign funding, additional National Assembly seats and a patronage machine to reward friends.
In addition to its strategic alliance with Michael Aoun, Hezbollah is riding the headwinds of change to victory as recent developments have dramatically strengthened their petition for leadership. On April 29, the United Nations tribunal investigating Rafik Hariri's death ordered the release of the four generals jailed in 2005 in connection with the assassination. The tribunal ruled that the evidence was "not sufficiently credible to request their maintenance in detention." The freeing of the generals who were never charged with a crime was an international embarrassment for Hariri’s coalition who implicated Syria for the murder and demanded the generals’ incarceration. At the celebration of their release in North Beirut the four men praised Hassan Nasrallah for Hezbollah’s long standing support. Nasrallah immediately called on the United Nations Tribunal to continue its investigation, suggesting that Hariri’s murder was plotted in Israel. At the same time that Hariri’s bloc was reeling from the U.N. tribunals’ decision, Hezbollah and Lebanon ’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) stepped up its arrests of Lebanese nationals caught spying for Israel. On May 12, Hezbollah held a press conference showcasing captured surveillance equipment used to track its member’s movements and transmit information back to Israel. The irony of the moment could not be missed; Hezbollah working closely with the ISF that was trained and financed by the U.S. to put them out of business. The ongoing operation that netted 26 arrests and shut down nine Israeli sleeper cells is further evidence of Hezbollah’s growing power in Lebanon.
While Hezbollah is surging, there is growing dissension in the Cedar forces ranks. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s criticism of the leadership’s narrow focus on Syrian interference in Lebanon’s affairs underscored the fundamental weakness of the March 14 movement; its inability to govern effectively and provide critical services to its citizens. Indeed, Hezbollah’s key to success in Lebanon is not its militias, advanced weaponry or legendary war effort that turned back Israel’s 2006 invasion. Its core asset is providing housing, food, water, schools, hospitals and vital social services to its Shiia constituency and others. As one of Syria ’s most vocal critics and fierce opponents of Hezbollah, Jumblatt’s comments angered his March 14 Coalition members and Obama administration officials who need a strong turnout of Druze voters to carry the elections. Jumblatt’s statement also provoked speculation that he may switch sides to Hezbollah’s camp. Jumblatt crossing over to support Hezbollah is unlikely, but the crafty veteran of several Lebanese wars recognizes that the balance of forces is tilting toward Hezbollah. In the unlikely event that the March 14th Cedar forces prevail in the elections, Hezbollah would still maintain its legislative veto in the National Assembly and the ability to block any measures that diminish its powers. Hezbollah’s militia and proxy forces would continue to control most of the country, including Beirut ’s critical seaport and airport. Over time Hezbollah will also co-opt Lebanon ’s National Army and Internal Security Force, as is already occurring. Although speculation continues that Hezbollah might dispatch its militia to shut down the elections and the government if the voting isn’t going its way, Hezbollah is clearly mounting an all out campaign to win a “clean election” at the ballot box. In the final analysis, whether Hezbollah wins the June 7 elections or not, it will effectively control Lebanon in the fullness of time.
The Obama administration came to office with few if any options to slow Hezbollah’s reach for power in Lebanon. The U.S. funded a Lebanese army that cannot defeat Hezbollah on the battlefield. The United Nations resolution calling for Hezbollah to disarm could not be enforced. America , Saudi Arabia and several European countries financed and endorsed the Cedar movement that hasn’t effectively governed or expanded its political influence beyond its base. Although President Obama recently suggested that American financial aid to Lebanon will be cut if Hezbollah wins the elections, America ’s attempts to isolate Hezbollah, as they did with HAMAS will be far more difficult. Hezbollah is not an isolated group. It has deep roots among the Shiia, a strong coalition among the Christian Maronite community and scattered support in the Sunni and Druze communities. On the international front, Britain has already announced it will enter into a dialogue with Hezbollah, and it is only a matter of time before other European nations follow suite. Despite the U.S. ’s designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, only three other countries have labeled Hezbollah as a terrorist group ( Israel , Canada and the Netherlands ).
A Hezbollah victory in Lebanon ’s June 7 parliamentary elections will further erode American power in the Middle East at a time when the U.S. is on the defensive in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Obama administration’s curious attempt to coax Syria out of Iran’s orbit will be severely undermined if not completely derailed by Hezbollah’s victory. Similarly, the administration’s strategy to promote al Fatah as the sole representative of the Palestinian people to the exclusion of HAMAS will encounter increased resistance on the Arab Street and in Tehran. In Europe, and among a growing number of American policy makers, calls for the U.S. to negotiate with HAMAS are heard with increased frequency. Across the Middle East Hezbollah’s victory will further unsettle the regimes of Arab Sunni sheikdoms fearful of Iran’s growth as the dominant regional force and the threat of rising Shiia movements within their countries. Hassan Nasrallah’s triumph in Lebanon is the product of 20 years of Iranian involvement to cultivate and methodically raise Hezbollah to power--perfecting the art of running a proxy state along the way.
President Obama recently stated at the Summit of the America’s meeting, that he would respect the "legitimacy" of all democratically elected governments, even if the US "might not be happy" with the results of any elections. On June 8, the President will get the chance to live up to his word when the Lebanese people speak at the polls.
Webster Brooks is a Senior Fellow at the Center for New Politics and Policy and Director of Brooks Foreign Policy Review, the international affairs arm of CNPP. He also serves as Editor-in-Chief its website; foreignpolicyrevew.org. He can be contacted at editor@foreignpolicyreview.org. 
