Wars and volcanoes have much in common. Making predictions about a coming war can be likened to a volcanologist predicting how a volcano will behave if it erupts.
There are usually lots of warning signs that a volcano is about cook off: Small tremors, rumblings deep within the earth, more fumes and vapour, the sudden melting of snow caps, and so on. Based on experience and known facts, volcanologists can make educated guesses about how the eruption might unfold, but they have been known to make significant errors and some variables will always be difficult to anticipate.
It is never possible to fix the exact time of an eruption. It can take months to emerge or it may come with only a few minutes warning.
People often live on the slopes of active volcanoes - the farmland can be good and whole cities have been sited nearby. Some restless volcanoes are continually giving off warning signs and people get all too used to them, being unwilling to abandon their homes and workplaces with every little twitch. Then comes the day when they have to outrun a dense rain of ash and pumice stone, hoping that they are not engulfed in a pyroclastic cloud of superheated particles.
Between Iran and its pursuit of nuclear weaponry and the behaviours of its Lebanese cat's paw Hezbollah it is clear that a volcano is going to blow soon. The Middle East is a volcanic hot zone and there are always rumbles and smoking vents but it seems that a major eruption is building.
Describing the shape and direction of a coming war is never easy: Imagine being a pundit in July 1914 or September 1939 asked to predict how the First and Second World Wars would unfold. Very few conflicts develop exactly as their instigators hoped that they would. Instead, one can only look at apparent intentions and capabilities and - like a volcanologist - make an informed guess.
There are dozens of different factors to consider in assessing the situation and shaping an estimate of what may soon come. Perhaps it is best to first consider Iran's internal situation.
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