Today’s Detailed Commentaries
Asia >> China: China and significant new stimulusOverview: You might want to read this article for confirmation that China’s government seems to be increasingly concerned about growth as it announces ‘stimulus packages’. The article includes what I think is some good ‘on site’ reporting of what is going on economically in parts of China.
I can’t see this as good news, if for no other reasons than:
I can’t see how stimulus in China can help other non-resource based countries (if indeed it can help resource based countries significantly); and,
I continue to think stimulus (read ‘quantitative easing’) in China or any other country is not the answer to ultimate meaningful economic recovery.
Europe >> Eurozone: George Soros interview in June – a ‘must watch if you have wealth to protect’Why read , watch, listen, and think hard about: Because it is clearly worth while to listen to an address delivered by George Soros this past June, and then think hard about what he says. Reflect on what has happened in the Eurozone in the past two months by way of both events and progress in crisis-solving, in circumstances where Mr. Soros says in his address he believed in June the following three months were very important ones for Eurozone politicians to ‘get ahead of the curve’.
Commentary: If you see yourself as someone who ‘thinks for yourself’, you have wealth to protect, and you have not previously watched the referenced video, I strongly recommend you now spend over one hour with George Soros. I particularly recommend this given that he delivered this address in June, and because I believe we are now getting to the point where we can see the lights of the train as it comes ever closer to where we are standing on the Eurozone (and world) economic track.
In particular, I suggest you listen to what Mr. Soros says when he discusses at:
minute 34 in his address what he calls “an arcane clearing system” called Target 2 that, should the Eurozone break up, he believes will cause problems between the:
Central Banks that are creditors of the Eurozone Central Banks on one hand, and
Eurozone Central Banks as debtors on the other.
This is potential contagion at a different level than I have been focused on, in circumstances where I have been focused on contagion problems I think may be faced by investment banks and hedge funds should the Eurozone be materially altered or, at an extreme, break up;
minute 44 of his address what he calls an “inflection point”;
minute 45 of his address where as I listened to him, in June he:
forecast that the Eurozone will not break up because he believes a Eurozone break-up would leave Germany with large uncollectible credits from other Eurozone countries, and
predicted a continuing Eurozone where Germany is even more dominant and advantaged than it has been as a Eurozone member to date; and,
minute 51 of his address, where in June 2012 Mr. Soros expressed “tremendous concern” that the process of dealing with the Eurozone financial crisis is taking too long to address. As you listen to this:
recall that he said this in June,
know he then said that three months from then the situation ‘will deteriorate’ if politicians do not “act ahead of the curve” instead of ‘behind the curve”, and
consider that in the past two months (of Mr. Soros’ three month period) not a lot has changed in the context of Eurozone political activism.
Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Note: The Commentary and information above is provided ‘AS IS’ and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice.
