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US Oil Prices Could Sink To $50

America’s New Energy ‘Problem’



U.S. oil prices could sink to $50 a barrel at some point over the next two years, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The U.S. government may have to approve oil exports if it wants the domestic oil boom to continue as $50 a barrel is below the cost of production. --Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney, 11 December 2012
The international chemicals industry is undergoing its most profound upheaval for 75 years, according to Kevin Swift of the American Chemistry Council. Not since the years before the second world war, when there was a flood of discoveries including nylon, synthetic rubber, PVC plastic and polystyrene, has there been technological change with such far-reaching consequences. --Ed Crooks, Financial Times, 17 December 2012 Ethylene will cost about $400-$500 a tonne to produce in the US, Mr Ahmed says, compared with $1,200 a tonne in Europe. European chemicals companies have been sounding the alarm about the impact of the US cost advantage on their competitive position. --Ed Crooks, Financial Times, 17 December 2012

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We can now estimate, based on observations, how sensitive the temperature is to carbon dioxide. We do not need to rely heavily on unproven models. Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100-150 years with the change in "radiative forcing" (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity. The conclusion - taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal-average global temperature between 1871-80 and 2002-11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake - is this: a doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6-1.7C. This is much lower than the IPCC's current best estimate, 3C. --Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal, 19 December 2012 The analysis of global combined land and ocean surface temperature in [the IPCC’s draft report] is inadequate for what it admits is seen as the prime statistic of global warming. It is highly selective in the references it quotes and in the use of time periods which obscures important, albeit inconvenient, aspects of the temperature data. It is poorly drafted, often making a strong assertion, and then somewhat later qualifying if not contradicting it by admitting its statistical insignificance. I can’t help but conclude that the pages of the GWPF contain a better analysis than is present in AR5, which is a mess. --David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 18 December 2012 The Renewable Energy Foundation today published a new study [by Professor Gordon Hughes], The Performance of Wind Farms in the United Kingdom and Denmark, showing that the economic life of onshore wind turbines is between 10 and 15 years, not the 20 to 25 years projected by the wind industry itself, and used for government projections. The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10 years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting electricity demand has declined by a third. --Renewable Energy Foundation, 19 December 2012 The BBC was accused yesterday of “rank dishonesty” over climate change by an influential body of sceptics. Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson was joined by two other peers – one Labour, the other a Liberal Democrat – in urging the new BBC director general Lord Hall to review the Corporation’s coverage of climate change. In recent years the BBC has been accused of an unquestioning approach to its coverage of climate change. --Daily Express, 18 December 2012 The Corporation said yesterday: “The BBC’s climate change coverage is balanced and impartial despite pressure from all those who would seek to influence the way this story is reported.” –BBC statement, Daily Express, 18 December 2012 Canada has officially withdrawn from the Kyoto climate agreement. The death notice comes years after the Stephen Harper government made clear it rejected the terms that were negotiated by the Jean Chretien government in 1997. --Jessica Hume, Sun News, 15 December 2012


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