Hansen proven wrong again! Prediction of ‘Super El Nino’ in 2006 A Failure

- Roger Pielke, Jr. I’ve always thought that predictions made should not be forgotten, but evaluated and learned from. About three years ago I made note of a prediction by NASA’s Jim Hansen that a “super El Niño” could be on the way. In Hansen’s words then:

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We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a “super El Nino”, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the “El Nino of the century” as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years.

How did this prediction do? Well there is a little something for everyone. There was in fact a 2006-2007 El Niño event. In the words of climatologist Mike McPhadden the event:

started late, ended early and was below average strength.

So it wasn’t nearly a super El Niño, and by contrast, the tropical Pacific has been mostly in La Niña conditions since Hansen made his forecast. For his part, Hansen is still predicting the onset of an El Niño event that will drive global temperatures to a new record high in 2009 or 2010. More...