by arthur Weinreb, associate Editor,
September 29, 2004
If only Canadians were the only ones to vote in the November 2 american election, John Kerry would be the next president of the United States. In a poll that was released on September 8, it was found that 61 percent of Canadians favoured Kerry while 16 percent of Canadians would prefer to see George W. Bush re-elected. The poll, conducted by a Toronto based research firm GlobeScan in conjunction with the University of Maryland, polled people in several different countries to determine their preferences in November's presidential elections.
The poll's findings are consistent with a previous poll done by Ipsos-Reid and released on July 26. Sixty percent of Canadian respondents favoured John Kerry as opposed to 22 percent who would support Bush.
The Ipsos-Reid poll was detailed and asked several questions concerning Canada/U.S. relations. Sixty-two percent of those who responded to the poll felt that Kerry would build better relationships with world leaders while 56 percent felt that Kerry would do a better job at "being a friend to Canada". Fifty-four percent of respondents felt that the Democratic Party challenger would be better at "dealing with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin and his Government".
There is no doubt that relations on a personal level will be better between the two governments if the Democrats win the White House. The current Liberal government has a hatred for all things conservative, whether it is the Republican administration in Washington or the Conservative Party of Canada. Since both the Canadian government and Kerry are internationalist in their outlook, they are bound to get along better than the Chrtien/Martin government ever did with the Bush administration. and since both John Kerry and Paul Martin seem to be blessed with the ability to take both sides of any and all issues, they will have no difficulty on agreeing with each other.
The Ipsos-Reid poll asked a variety of questions such as which presidential candidate would be better "helping grow the U.S. economy", "keeping america safe from terrorists" and "making the world a safe place". What is noticeable about the Ipsos-Reid poll is not what was asked, but what was not asked.
Respondents of the Canadian pollster were never asked if they knew about any policies that specifically dealt with Canada and whether these policies would be better or worse for this country with Kerry replacing Bush. as much as John Kerry might be a fellow traveller of Canada's left wing government, there was no mention of the impact of policies that a President Kerry might implement that would affect Canada.
When not talking about wars, past and present, one of Kerry's major issues is the outsourcing of american jobs. In this regard, he is likely to be more protectionist than President Bush is. and if this is in fact the case, the election of John Kerry will not be good for Canada.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTaD) released a report on September 22. as reported in the Globe and Mail, Canada is among a group of developed countries that attracts high-tech jobs such as call centres and IT projects from other countries. The UN report stated that Canada, together with Israel, Ireland and India, control over 70 percent of the market for offshore services. Canada came second to India in the opening of call centres during 2002-3.
For the little talk that John Kerry has done on issues other than his service in Vietnam and the current hostilities in Iraq, he has not been shy in talking about Canada. He spoke out against the city of Toronto's dumping their garbage in Michigan and has spoken out against the porous borders of the U.S. In a speech given a Temple University in Philadelphia, Kerry accused Bush of ignoring the threat posed by al Qaeda while concentrating on Iraq. according to Kerry, the Canadian and Mexican borders are more porous today than they were on September 11, 2001. If Canadians, especially Canadians of Middle Eastern descent, think that they will be able to simply breeze into John Kerry's america, they will be in for a rude awakening.
The proposed action against the dumping of garbage in Michigan was no doubt made to garner support in a swing state. and, Kerry's statement about the borders could also be just politicking. But Kerry seems serious about trying to stem the outsourcing of american jobs.
While it is easy to imagine Paul Martin and John Kerry, holding hands with Kofi annan and singing Kumbayah, the election of John Kerry could have negative economic aspects for Canada.