I’m going to go out on a limb and make a prediction: the Liberal government of Paul Martin will fall today. Despite all the mathematical highjinx of many of the country’s learned pundits, my gut feel is that the two key MPs whose votes are so crucial are going to say "enough is enough" as they stand in awe of the lengths to which Paul Martin will go to stay in power.
Martin has practically bought everyone he can buy in a desperate and pitiful effort to hang on, but in the end it likely will not be enough to make a difference. The sheer quantity of dirt sticking to Martin’s persona and the desperate measures he has taken these past weeks to hold on betray an overwhelming insecurity that will eventually be his undoing.
Sure, some commentators argue that Martin has great people skills, while Harper is a dolt, but there comes a time in every sociopath’s life when his actions collide with events to bring about a cataclysmic result.
and so I think it will be with Paul Martin and the Liberals today. His deal with the devil, Jack Layton, that will cost corporate taxpayers an additional $4.6 billion, his attempt to buy the support of the socialist mayors of Canada’s two largest cities, his playing for time, knowing that some of Harper’s MPs will be too ill with cancer to attend today’s vote, his short-lived dalliance with a military adventure in Darfur to appease David Kilgour and finally his tawdry purchase of a cheap, political good-time girl is raising eyebrows among the populace.
In an article I penned about the Liberals’ desperation last week I idly mused "So, what’s next? are they going to whack Stephen Harper? Will they put anne McLennan on the street? Will they try to buy Gilles Duceppe? These are all real possibilities…" I guess the only possibility that I didn’t think about was the possibility of Martin purchasing a Conservative member to sit in his caucus.
But back to why I think they’ll lose today’s vote of confidence. Both Chuck Cadman and David Kilgour are principled MPs and neither has much of a future in prolonging the agony of this Parliament. I believe that both Cadman and Kilgour will vote against Paul Martin and that as a result his government will fall. Certainly Kilgour was mulling over the significance of "Crossing Belinda’s" walk on the wild side, indicating that he believed it to be a singularly despicable act.
I’m thinking it could well be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Maybe Paul Martin is a tad too clever for his own good. The only question that remains is if the vote goes against him today, will he call for a best two out of three?