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Sectarian violence, jihad, abu Musab al-Zarqawi

Second Message from Osama bin Laden broadcast on Internet: analysis

By Douglas J. Hagmann

Sunday, July 2, 2006

"If authentic, the tape demonstrates yet again that bin Laden and al Qaeda continued use the media to justify their dark vision and war against humanity –White House Official

2 July 2006: In his fifth taped message broadcast this year and his second in two days, a 19 minute, 11 second audio voiceover of a still image of Osama bin Laden was posted across arabic language Internet sites late yesterday. In this as-Sahab produced message, bin Laden issued his strongest comments on sectarian divisions in Iraq, encouraging Sunnis in Iraq to retaliate against Shiites, deviating from al Qaeda's stand of not promoting sectarian violence. The message also contains pointed warnings to the U.S. and its allies, Muslims and non-Muslims alike cooperating with the U.S., and the Iraqi leadership. Late Saturday, analysts, professional investigators and researchers from the Northeast Intelligence Network conducted an extensive analysis of the message.

Calls for violence against Shiites

Osama bin Laden, a Sunni Muslim adhering to the ideology that Shiite Muslims are heretics, says that the Sunni arab minority in Iraq are "experiencing annihilation,” and to survive, they must "hold on to their jihad" and "oust the occupying powers” from Iraq. Bin Laden refers to Shiites as "traitors and agents of the americans," and calls the Sunnis in Iraq to attack the Shiites, which represents a strategic change for al Qaeda. Historically, the Shiites held the political power Iraq, although they were greatly marginalized under the reign of Saddam Hussein's regime that favored the Sunnis.

Previously, the advocating of such criticism and calls for violence has been avoided by bin Laden and his second in command, ayman al Zawahiri. but not by the late abu Musab al Zarqawi. according to information from U.S. military leaders, al-Zawahiri issued a communiqu to Zarqawi last year, instructing the terrorist emir to stop promoting violence among the Sunnis and Shiites. It has been reported that the U.S. intercepted the communication.

Formalization of the replacement for abu Musab al-Zarqawi

Following Wednesday's message, bin Laden officially names abu Hamza al-Muhajer, also known as abu ayyub al-Masri , as the new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq – praising him and wishing him success. according to one translated version of the audio, Osama bin Laden states:

"Our brothers, the Mujahideen in the al Qaeda organization, have chosen the dear brother abu Hamza al-Muhajer as their leader to succeed the emir abu Musab al-Zarqawi." I advise him to focus his fighting against the americans, their allies and supporters in their war against Islam and the people of Iraq."

Northeast Intelligence Network analysts who have reviewed the latest message also note that bin Laden advises al-Muhajer to team up with the Mujahedeen Shura Council (MSC), an al Qaeda offshoot and umbrella group of various terrorist organizations. The implication here is that the Mujahedeen Shura Council is further legitimized as the keystone of a potential Islamic theocracy to be established in Iraq.

Iraqi Leader subject of harsh criticism

In this latest message, Osama bin Laden also criticizes the efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite, to promote a national reconciliation plan. He calls on Sunnis in Iraq to reject a national unification plan and further warns them against participating in politics. He refers to coalition forces as crusaders and to the Iraqis working with them as infidels. "Our Muslim people in Iraq need to learn that no truce should be accepted with the crusaders and the apostates," states bin Laden. "Do not be fooled by the invitations to join political parties and taking part in the so-called political process," he adds.

Currently, Nuri al-Maliki is visiting the leaders of other Gulf states in an attempt to secure their support for his reconciliation plan.

Fight the Infidels

Osama bin Laden refers to coalition forces in Iraq and U.S. forces everywhere as "crusaders” and anyone working with them, Muslim or non-Muslim - as infidels. Stated bin Laden: "Our Muslim brothers in Iraq must learn that no truce can be accepted with the crusaders and the apostates."

Bin laden also promised that his group would fight the United States anywhere in the world, a message that concerns some analysts who believe that the content of the recent spate of messages, along with the obvious increase of the same, could be a call for attacks against the U.S. or other western country.

He concludes his message by asking God to protect the "Mujahedeen everywhere," including in Gaza, the West Bank, Kashmir, Chechnya, afghanistan, algeria and the arabian Peninsula.

White House response

The White House responded to Osama bin Laden's warning of retaliation against Shiites in Iraq by condemning the al Qaeda leader as "a man of dark vision who offers only chaos, war and misery.” "Osama bin Laden again wants to sow division and chaos in Iraq and the Muslim world," the White House said in a statement read by an official.

"If authentic, the tape demonstrates yet again that bin Laden and al Qaeda continue to use the media to justify their dark vision and war against humanity," the White House official said. "These terrorists offer nothing in their ideology and messages beyond further fighting, conflict and misery." It is important to note that there has not been any "false tape" attributed to bin Laden to date.

Regarding the "officially appointed abu Hamza al-Muhajer, or abu ayyub al-Masri, on Friday Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice authorized a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to his capture.


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