So now that Iran has crossed the so-called "red line" and resumed nuclear research, what can we expect to happen? My guess is, not much. National self-interest and access to cheap oil are the trump cards that Iranians have pulled out of their nuclear deck and as such their program to enhance their nuclear capability (both civilian and military) will likely continue.
Much has been said about the merits of pushing for the International atomic Energy agency (IaEa) to report Iran to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for being in breach of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. But let's assume that the IaEa does report Iran to the UNSC, then what? Either China and/or Russia will veto any action voted on by the Security Council, as both countries have strong vested interests in being Iran's friend.
In addition, our fiends at the European Union (EU), especially the French and Germans, will very likely get cold feet, which can only be warmed by cheap Iranian oil.
Thus in the end we are back at the beginning; Iran conducting nuclear research and the rest of the world worried about it. Let's not fool ourselves. Despite Iran's claims that it is seeking nuclear capabilities for purely benign civilian reasons, it doesn't take a psychic to realize the real reason Iran wants to play with nuclear fire. Iran's newly elected hard-line president, Mahmud ahmadinejad has hinted not too subtly what Iran's new science project is really all about--"wiping Israel off the map".
Let's deal with the claim that Iran wants nuclear power for peaceful, civilian purposes. Iran currently produces some 10 billion kWh of electricity more than it consumes on an annual basis, which belies the claim that nuclear power is needed to generate electricity. In addition, Iran produces somewhere on the order of 4 million barrels of oil per day of which it consumes less than 1.5 million barrels per day, meaning that no matter how you look at it, Iran has more energy domestically than it needs.
But a bomb, no, The Bomb! That's worth having and that's why Iran is thumbing its nose at the international community and defying anyone to stop them. They know that going through all the international and multinational and multi-lateral and bi or tri-lateral bodies, which are proliferating like so much alphabet soup, will take lots of time. and by the time the international community under the guise of the UN has come up with a plan of action, Iran's program will be so much further advanced and the plan of action will largely consist only of words. Or as the EU's foreign policy czar, Javier Solana said, "It's not in the mind of anyone at this point in time to take military action…" In the words of Middle East Expert Qamar agha, "Western Europe is far too dependent upon Iran's oil and gas to go to extreme lengths in sustaining sanctions that cripple Iran's energy generation." But that's Western Europe.
Israel and the U.S., on the other hand are looking at some other options that involve something worth a little more than words. CIa Director Paul Goss recently visited a number of Middle Eastern nations to brief them on U.S. contingency plans that possibly include attacking Iran. and Israel has long been of the view that Iran's nuclear program can be destroyed just as easily as they destroyed Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor back in 1981.
Iran remains unrepentant. after removing the UN's seals from the Natanz uranium enrichment facility to resume research on the enrichment of nuclear fuel, Iran announced that it was planning to sponsor a conference to examine the scientific evidence supporting the Holocaust.
The concept of mutually assured destruction is not one that is likely to faze the officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran. On the contrary, one is left with the impression that they would welcome a military incursion, which leads me to believe that there probably already is a bomb in the Iranian arsenal, built and perfected right under the nose of the IaEa.
So what will the EU and the UN and the Non-aligned Movement (NaM) say when all that remains of Tel aviv is a smoking radioactive pile of rubble? My guess is, not much.
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