By arthur Weinreb
Thursday, November 9, 2006
The day before americans went to the polls; back when Rummy was still firmly ensconced in the Pentagon, the Toronto Star was predicting a win for the Democrats that would spell trouble for Stephen Harper and his Conservative government. as the Democrats won both the House and the Senate, we are bound to be bombarded with more of this line of thinking in the days to come. This theory; that as the Republicans go, so go the Tories, is based upon the simplistic notion that (a) the Republicans are nothing more than a bunch of right wing extremist warmongers; (b) the Conservatives are a bunch of right wing extremist warmongers, and ,(c) Canadians are just americans with publicly funded health care. So it naturally follows that Republican losses in Montana and Virginia will lead to Conservative losses in alberta and Ontario. The notion that the Harper government is somehow in trouble because of the way americans voted in their mid-term elections is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of those who are propounding this theory.
Let's look at the reverse situation. after the Republicans captured Congress in 1994, led by Newt Gingrich and his Contract with america, it is hard to recall anyone saying that this doomed the year-old Liberal and liberal government of Jean Chrtien. But now, some pundits are predicting that Harper simply cannot survive because of how the americans voted on Tuesday.
Much of the speculation about the Harper government suffering as a result of the way americans have just voted is centered upon the war in afghanistan. These Harper critics have adopted Jack Layton's characterization that Canadian troops are dying for "George Bush's war”. Since Stephen Harper is a strong supporter of our mission in afghanistan, and since americans have just sent Bush a message, Harper is in deep deep doo doo.
To the extent that americans ever put their minds to the fact that their country has troops in afghanistan, that war was never an election issue. Many conservatives and independent voters, who cast their votes for Democrats on Tuesday, were not necessarily against the U.S. deployment of troops in Iraq. These americans were angered by the way the war in Iraq is being fought. Three and one-half years and thousands of casualties after the fall of Saddam, Iraqis seem no more able to provide for their own security than they were the day the Saddam Hussein regime fell. If anything, the sectarian violence seems to be increasing. To attribute the feelings of americans as to how their country is conducting the war in Iraq to Canadians whose government has committed troops to afghanistan is somewhat of a stretch.
The U.S. election did not amount to a referendum on conservatives or conservative principles. To the extent that Bush and the Republicans took a beating over conservative principles, it was because they were not conservative enough. Conservatives like to see less government and are not satisfied with a big liberal government simply being replaced by an even larger conservative one. Many Democratic Party candidates were successful on Tuesday only because they took positions that were somewhat to the right of their Republican opponents. It is hard to see how this phenomenon could have any impact whatsoever on the future of the Canadian political scene.
Exit polls revealed that many voters deserted the Republicans because they felt that the party was corrupt. again, it is difficult to see how a few criminal convictions and some allegations of corruption against a few Republican lawmakers could possibly affect the future of the Conservative Party in Canada. again, Harper going down to defeat because americans threw the Republicans out is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of those who propound this scenario.
as Don Martin wrote in a column in the National Post, Democrats tend to be more protectionist than Republicans and Canada could have more problems with free trade with a Democratic Congress. We would do well to address these types of issues rather than speculate about how the american electorate is going to help bring down that scary Stephen Harper.
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