By Sean Osborne
Northeast Intelligence NetworkSaturday, March 10, 2007
This coming waris shaping up to befar more significant than the 6-Day War of 1967 or the Yom Kippur War of 1973. This war will have Syria buttressed strategically by Iran and Russia. Another key item is the presence of massive US/NATO military power to the east in Iraq, the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea, and in Afghanistan, not to mentionand EU military in southern Lebanon. The mixed forces in Lebanoncould lead toa military free-for-all.
Israel can also anticipate coordinated enemy strikes coming from Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has no strategic depth but it does has a strategic nuclear reserve.And unlike the war last summer with Hezbollah this war has thepotential to affect all areas of the country.
The 1973 War almost went nuclear. This one has the same if not greater risk of going nuclear. It will be an existential war for the State of Israel. I anticipate US and EU involvement in the defense of Israel.I anticipate a majorIsraeli/Allied victory. I also anticipate Israeli membership in NATO as a possible result.
www.Debka.com is also reporting on this development.Syria deploys thousands of rockets on Israel border: sourcesby Ron Bousso - AFP -
Syria has positioned on its border with Israel thousands of medium andlong-range rockets capable of striking major towns across northern Israel,military and government sources told AFP.
This deployment, coupled with other recent reports of Syrian troopmobilisation, is seen in Israel as an indication that Damascus may bepreparing for future "low intensity warfare," they said.
The report comes only two weeks after Israel held war games on the occupiedGolan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967, in a bid to learn the lessons oflast summer's conflict in neighbouring south Lebanon.
The Syrian army accelerated its deployment of medium and long-range rocketsin the wake of the Lebanon war, during whichthe Hezbollah militia fired moe than 4,000 rockets against northern Israel.
"We have noticed that in recent months Syria has deployed hundreds, possiblythousands, of medium and long-range rocketsalong the border (with Isr ael)," one military source said.
"Many of the rockets are hidden in underground chambers and in camouflagedsilos, which make them very difficult to locate," the source said.
Three of the sources were from the military and two from the government, andthey all spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity. They said Syria has built asystem of fortified underground tunnels along its border with Israel.
Most of the rockets deployed are 220 millimetre, with a range of 70kilometres (43 miles), and 302 millimetre rockets capable of strikingtargets at a distance of more than 100 kilometres (56 miles).
The latter would be well within range of the main population centres innorthern Israel such as Tiberias and Kiryat Shmona.These long-range rockets could also reach Israel's third largest city ofHaifa and its industrial zone, which is home to several essentialindustries, including oil refineries and a deep-water port.
It is also b elieved that Syria has deployed several FROG rocket launchers,with a a 550-kilogram (1,200-pound) warhead and 70-kilometre range, in areasbetween the border and the capital Damascus, 40 kilometres (25 miles) away.
According to the sources, such a massive deployment of well entrenchedrockets poses "a real strategic threat" to Israel.While Syria concentrates most of its long-range surface-to-surface missilearsenal in the north of the country, its decision to deploy rockets so closeto the border may indicate that Syria is mulling an attack on Israel,experts say.
"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad realised after the Lebanon war that Israelwas not as strong as it seems and that it could bethreatened by simple means rather than an advanced army," the director ofthe Begin-Saadat Centre for Strategic Studies, Ephraim Inbar, told AFP.
Inbar, as well as the military sources, believe that "Assad could bepreparing for low intensit y war, a type of war of attrition with Israel,where Syria fires several rockets against Israel without provokingfull-fledged war."
"Israel has absolute superiority in several fields in warfare," a seniorgovernment official said, referring mainly to Israel's advanced air forceand "smart" weapons.
"So Syria is investing in fields where it can have an edge. It has investedin recent years in anti-aircraft weapons, rockets, missiles and bunkers. Thewar in Lebanon proved to the Syrians they were right to do so."
Israel's military intelligence chief, Major General Amod Yadlin, told thegovernment's annual intelligence assessment that whileSyria was beefing up its military, war between the two neighbouringcountries was unlikely in 2007.
"Syria is continuing its military build-up and preparing for war," he toldthe cabinet.
"The chances of a full-scale war initiated by Syria are low, but the chancesof Syria reactin g militarily against Israeli military moves are high."
Government sources told AFP that Syria was close to concluding a deal withRussia to procure thousands of advanced anti-tank missiles, of the sortHezbollah used with great success against Israeli armour last year.
Tensions between Israel and Syria have peaked in recent months, with Israelrejecting peace overtures from Damascus and both sides toughening rhetoric.
Damascus has repeatedly demanded the return of the Golan Heights, astrategic plateau which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Arab-Israeliwar and annexed in 1981. It is now home to more than 15,000 settlers.
Peace talks between Israel and Syria collapsed in 2000.
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